Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013

This forecast is part of the Cisco^® Visual Networking Index, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. The purpose of this paper is to lay out the details of Cisco's global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it.

For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented below, please refer to the companion article to this paper entitled "Hyperconnectivity and the Approaching Zettabyte Era."

Consider this, in 1981 there were about 231 hosts on the Internet. In 1992 there were about 10 million, by 2000 there were about 100 million hosts. By 2003 there was about 175 million, and by 2005 there were over 350 million hosts. E-mail was the first killer app on the Internet. In the early days e-mail had no attachments, no HTML tags, no colors. A typical e-mail might have been 1-2KB in size.

A study conducted JupiterResearch anticipates that a 38 percent increase in the number of people with online access will mean that, by 2011, 22 percent of the Earth's population will surf the Internet regularly. The report says 1.1 billion people currently enjoy regular access to the Web. For the study, JupiterResearch defined online users as people who regularly access the Internet by dedicated Internet access devices. Those devices do not include cell phones.

This is pretty extraordinary considering Cisco is estimating that in 4 short years the global Internet will reach a staggering 667 exabytes (that's 6,667,000,000 GB).

Cisco says Internet video is now approximately one-third of all consumer Internet traffic, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will account for over 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2013.

Almost 64 percent of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2013. Mobile video will grow 150% between 2008 and 2013. Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013. A single high-end phone (such as an iPhone or Blackberry) generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.

In 2013, the Internet will be nearly four times larger than it is in 2009. By year-end 2013, the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs will cross the Internet each month.
Internet video is now approximately one-third of all consumer Internet traffic, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing.
Video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will double every two years through 2013. Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 53 percent CAGR between 2008 and 2013, compared to a CAGR of 40 percent for consumer Internet traffic.

To read the whole story click here

These predictions are fascinating. Just look how quickly people have adopted cell phones as the price dropped, how quickly broadband became a staple in the household. Considering there are about 9 new Android based smart phones coming out in 2009, Apple just lowered the price of the iPhone to $99, Palm just released a new smart phone, and pricing for for DSL is at an all time low, it won't be long before these estimates are statictical facts.

Think about this as you produce content for your site, there is only a growing demand for more and more content. More and more people will be accessing the Internet, not only at work and at home, but while they're out to dinner, at a party, or waiting for the their car to be repaired! Grab onto the reigns and hang on, the next 4 years will be a wild ride.

Thanks,

Mike Colburn (DigitalMediaGuy)

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This forecast is part of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. The purpose of this paper is to lay out the details of Cisco's global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it.